Sunday, December 6, 2009

Tranportation and Infrastructure Crisis


In the post-budget speech, the Pakistani government ‘advised’ the people to take a cue from the US population and start using public transport to cut their fuel costs.
Well, we are ready to take cue from the Americans and will use the public transport, but is the government ready to take cue from the US and provide us the decent public transport? The current plight of the public transport is not only pathetic, dismal and painful; it is downright like a hell ride. Whether its intra-city or inter-city transport, there is no decent service available for the commuters in any city or town of the Pakistan.
The whole public transport service infrastructure is in the hands of private individuals, who do nothing but to screw people as much as possible. Government has no control whatsoever on these transporters. Most of the drivers and conductors of these public transports are either criminals released from jail, who don’t find any other work, or they are the people who know nothing else to do because of their illiteracy and non-existent skills.
People have to wait for hours to board on the bus or wagon and then they face a traumatic journey towards their homes and offices. Public transporters use dilapidated vehicles and cram as much people as possible. Ladies are subjected to very humiliating behavior, and the drivers are conductors remain always ready to quarrel. Fares are set by the transporters and there is no say of government in it. When the fuel prices are increased, fares are also increased by the transporters, and when fuel prices decrease, nobody bothers to reduce the fares.
In Pakistan, according to a newspaper report, 70 per cent of the energy generated is thermal which is produced from imported POL products and fuel oil. The electricity charges would increase under an automatic tariff adjustment formula and the government would also not offer any subsidy or relief to the people. So, this carbon tax would not only increase the financial miseries of 170 million populations, but also apply brakes on the industrial growth, as the input cost of fuel and electricity would increase manifold. The carbon tax appears nothing else but an anti-growth tax. The CNG has never been considered as a component of the POL, but now, it has been considered that the CNG is now heavily used in private vehicles and even public transport vehicles like rickshaws, minibus, etc.
There is no denying the fact that the masses need to use the fuel efficiently and rationally, but before forcing nation to do that through Draconian Carbon Tax, the government must provide a stable and dependable and strictly regulated public transport system.

Electricity Shortages


The load shedding-driven sleepless nights and disrupted daily routines of last summer are still haunting the people as the weather turns hot. The situation has not improved since last year; indeed all the signs are that it is getting worse. Credit goes to brave Pakistanis for surviving through the winter despite 10-hour power and gas load shedding. But in the upcoming summer when the mercury is going to consistently hover round 40°C, occasionally rising to 50°C in some places, a power crisis of a similar order is going to prove unbearable. Last summer the national media reported tragic deaths due to heatstroke and dehydration. The energy crisis in winter forced thousands of industries to shut down operations, affecting industrial production and the livelihoods of thousands of families.
Two key elements of a possible solution are: categorical change in the pattern of energy consumption and change in lifestyles.
The current energy consumption trends in Pakistan are extremely inefficient, whether it be in the domestic, industrial, trade or commercial sectors. With minimal effort, well over ten per cent of national electricity can be saved by applying only the first level of energy conservation, that is a change in attitude. It is simple, instant and effective and all it requires is a stop to using energy unnecessarily.
Leaving lights and home
appliances on even when they are not being used is a common practice in our society. Similarly, many businesses such as shops dealing in cloth and garments, jewellery, cosmetics, home appliances and electronics are usually extravagantly lit. It is commonly observed that shops that could do with two or three 40-watt tube lights to meet the desired level of luminance use as many as 15 to 20 tubes. Not only does this increase power consumption, it also generates heat and makes the environment uncomfortable.
The second part of the solution is a change in lifestyles. It would begin with the acknowledgement that the country is facing a national disaster and every citizen has to pitch in to overcome it. The nation has to draw a clear line between necessities (lighting, fans, TVs, computers, etc) and luxuries (air conditioners,
microwaves, etc). There is not enough electricity to meet both requirements.
We will have to compromise on luxurious lifestyles in order to meet the necessities. Markets and commercial places can substantially reduce their power consumption by changing their working hours. An early start and early end to capitalise on daylight as much as possible should be recommended rather than having opening hours from afternoon until late at night.Air-conditioning, usually a sign of a luxurious lifestyle, needs to be dropped. Bearing in mind that a typical domestic AC consumes far more electricity in one hour than a fan does over 24 hours, air conditioning should not be allowed except for sensitive applications such as hospitals and research centres. The choice is between using ACs for a few hours and then doing without electricity in peak summer months or avoiding ACs and other luxury gadgets but having round-the-clock electricity available to meet fundamental needs.
Any such policy should be made at the highest level and its implementation should also begin there because charity starts at home. The common man would only be convinced of the looming crisis when he sees the ruling elite practise what it preaches.
These recommendations are neither impractical nor a step backward, as some sections may perceive them to be. If implemented they can not only avoid the collapse of a bankrupt energy infrastructure but also ensure progress. Even those who have access to easy money and can afford different gadgets such as generators to offset reduced power supply will still feel the heat one way or the other. The bottom line is, in order to safely get through the current energy crisis the nation has to differentiate between its necessities and its luxuries.

Political Instability affecting the Common Man


Despite its resilience and some strong fundamentals, Pakistan’s economy is now facing multiple challenges. In addition to strategic location, the country’s other strong fundamentals are: a market of over 160 million people, an emerging middle class and an enviable record of economic reforms and policies. Still in place, these fundamentals contributed to the economic stability and a remarkable sustained growth exceeding 7 per cent over the last four years.
What now eludes the country is political stability since March 2007. As political instability is adversely impacting the economy, it is the ardent wish of the citizens that political stability takes root in the country soon. As far as the economy is concerned, the country’s exports have stagnated for the last couple of years, while the imports are constantly rising. The trade deficit, last year, stood at $13.5 billion, whereas it is likely to be much higher this year.
The budget deficit, which was originally projected at 4 per cent of GDP (equivalent to Rs400 billion), might rise to over 5.2 per cent. The increase in the international oil prices and subsidies being provided by the government on POL products, electricity and wheat flour, the cumulative effect of which is likely to swell to Rs280 billion or 2.8 per cent of GDP. Though the increase in oil prices and power tariffs on February 29, 2007 has marginally reduced the budget deficit, but the economy still continues to be haunted by huge oil and power subsidies of over Rs180 billion.
Meanwhile, an upsurge in food prices, power outages and the inflationary impact of rising oil prices in the international markets have a direct impact on purchasing power of the common man. A deteriorating law and order situation owing to rise in acts of terrorism has further compounded the situation. To keep its balance sheet in tact, the government shall have either to increase the volume of its revenues or cut down on expenditure, both developmental and non-developmental.
The government is reportedly considering to slash the development expenditure by Rs 75/100 billion of the total that presently stands at Rs525 billion (including Rs150 billion funding to be arranged by the private sector). However, the government also needs to concentrate on the adoption of austerity measures because its non-development expenditure which has swelled by Rs400 billion during the last eight years. A rise of Rs490 billion in the tax revenues, which increased from Rs300 billion to Rs790 billion during the last eight years, which would go a long way in helping the development projects. But, the increase of Rs490 billion in tax revenues is largely nullified by the sharp increase of Rs400 billion in its non-development expenditure due to extravagance in expenditure and heavy perks enjoyed by the top hierarchy.
The situation is quite critical as the FBR is already finding it difficult to maintain its target of revenue collection, which was projected at Rs1025 billion for the current fiscal year. It has already been slashed down by some Rs150 billion. However, the FBR could only collect Rs575 billion in revenues during the first eight months (July-February) of the current fiscal year. The revenue shortfall on corporate returns till January 31, 2008 was Rs22.7 billion, as the tax authorities could only collect Rs2.3 billion instead of Rs24 billion during the corresponding period in the last fiscal year.
Further, the national exchequer continues to suffer heavy losses, which are reported to be over Rs300 billion annually. Further, there is little progress towards expanding the tax base, in particular bringing the agricultural and service sectors into the taxation net and eliminating non-standard exemptions enjoyed by the country’s elite classes.
Many services and agricultural sector are still out of the tax net despite making substantial contribution to the overall GDP growth. Though the authorities conceded this fact, they are hesitant to move towards the desired objectives because of political considerations.
The cost of tax exemptions witnessed a steep hike during fiscal year 2006-07 as it soared to Rs184.9 billion. According to knowledgeable sources, the quantum of tax exemptions has further gone up during the current year.

Justice for the Common Man


In a survey of 4000 respondents conducted in 2006 by www.trasparency.org, judiciary was ranked 3rd most corrupt institution, more than 70% declared judiciary as corrupt.
The poll results shown above represents the opinion of a much smaller number of respondents; however it is not much different from the result conducted by www.transparency.org. Any expert researcher would certify that if the respondents are random, the results will change only 5 ~ 10% even if the number respondents are multiplied many times over. The reasons for such sentiments against judiciary, in my view are due to the stark ground realities that have been prevailing since last sixty years.

According to some estimated the number of pending cases are more than 1.5 million, according to others it could be double. The status of judicial infrastructure, the total number of courts, judges, lawyers, and the level of corruption among them, and not to forget the supporting executive bodies whose corrupt conduct has also been one of the major cause of injustice to the poor man of this country. All such factors are huge challenges, barriers I would say, that needs to be crossed to keep the promise to bring justice to every one. The plans to change all this is not know. All what a common man can do is to wait and see how the events are unfolded. Hope is what has been keeping us alive, but we have started to ask our selves that till how long we can cling on to mere hope alone.

Property and Housing Issue for the Common Man


Pakistan is facing a real property crisis. There is an estimated shortage of more than one million houses which is likely to grow by 0.6 million every year. But mercifully the situation is not as bad as in India where the housing shortage is a staggering 40 million houses.
But it makes an interesting reading to understand the dynamics of the real estate market in Pakistan. One can safely assume that it is an underdeveloped market. As compared to developed economies of the world where the real estate is mostly financed through mortgage, it is a completely neglected sector in Pakistan. The presence of mortgage financing in the property sector is only a recent phenomenon and can be qualified as negligible. Even the present mortgage financing is volatile with floating interest rate, which means that the lender is unsure of the real terms and conditions of the loan and the banks are at liberty to change the terms and conditions in case of adverse interest rates subsequently. It is interesting to note that mortgage financing is more than 50 % of GDP in most developed countries whereas this ratio is less than 2% in Pakistan.
Another worrying factor of the real estate market of Pakistan is the poor land record maintenance. It is still manual and efforts to computerize it have failed in the past. Bribery is the order of the day in land record and Patwari is still the king who may temper with the record according to his sweet will and vested interests. There is also a risk of fraudulent transactions due to non-transparent land record.
Recently following a worldwide boom in international real estate business, property market in Pakistan also witnessed a sharp growth. One of the factors may also be the recent decline in interest rates. It is a standard principle of economics that in a falling interest rates regime, people tend to invest in real estate, thinking it to be safe and secure from inflation.
Another stigma on the property sector of Pakistan is the speculation mafia. With the drop of interest rates, people were uncertain about their investments in banks and withdrew to invest in the property market, which offered attractive returns overnight, thanks to speculation mafia. Many housing societies were formed to defraud people. Files were in circulation everywhere without any physical existence of the plots and houses on ground and many opportunists and speculators benefited from this panorama. And ultimately common man was the looser, who was left with the file without anything concrete as the housing societies suddenly started to disappear. One can easily remember the example of Bankers City Housing Society.
But at the end of the day, common man in Pakistan is dreaming for a small house of his own, which seems a distant dream. One way to overcome the shortage of houses in Pakistan may be the introduction of multistory buildings to avoid the heavy urban land cost. This will naturally lower the prices of houses and may bring these in the reach of a common citizen.

Thursday, December 3, 2009

econmic crisis and the common man

According to the definitions in various dictionaries, a common man is one who doesn’t have an identity or title or is known as an ordinary man. Compiling all the definitions I could come across, I could give a comprehensive definition of a common man. A common man is one who represents the majority of population of his country. In Pakistan, a common man is one who is not highly or even moderately educated, who doesn’t have resources to fulfill the basic needs of life and who doesn’t have a control on things happening to him.
As we are here to discuss the economic crises for a common man, we must realize that economics is not understood or read by the common man of Pakistan. I had a chance to ask few of the people who, according to the definition, are common men of our country. For them, an economic crisis was all about joblessness, low wages, inefficient health assistance, inflation, and very few of them were concerned about educational institutions for their children and their expenses. But when I asked them why this all is happening, they couldn’t say much instead of blaming the government. Moreover, the sugar shortage was another concern that bothered not only the common men but also the elites of Pakistan, who had to take a bitter cup of coffee in their breakfasts due to the crisis.
To alleviate the situation, the government of Pakistan is needed to focus on the ever growing inequality of income in Pakistan. Although, there are programs introduced by government to support the cause such as “Benazir Income support program” but such programs are being criticized by the well known economists. It is believed that there were many other opportunities that could have been more efficient in order to shorten the inequality gap. The initial allocation to this program is Rs. 34 billion (US $425 million, approximately) with the objective to partially offset the impact of inflation on the purchasing power of the poorer sections of the society. It means that this program is catering for the temporary problem of inflation that has been created due to multiple reasons. However, what actually should be done is to use this huge sum of money to eliminate and control the sources of this inflation. Moreover, this sum of money could have supported the SME’s (small and medium enterprises) of Pakistan for their growth and stability. Only 15% of the population can benefit from the program which indicates 60 % of the population below poverty line will be left out. This program serves as a partial treatment for the crisis however; the government should focus on preventions of crisis and should deal with the root causes.

According to former World Bank economist and ex-Pakistani finance Minister, Shahid Javed Burki, Pakistan GDP may decline to 2.5 % and a sharp fall in rate of growth is likely to be observed in near future. He says that Pakistan needs a comprehensive economic program which can focus on fundamental economic restructuring. But unfortunately, that has been a route not taken. he found it alarming that 6 to 7 percent times more was being spent in the non developing sector than on development.

Monday, November 30, 2009

Introduction


In our daily lives, we often hear terms such as "Economic Crisis" but there are people who can not understand what it really means .These people are the Common Men of our country. We are here to provide them with knowledge on different issues that create economic crisis and different aspects that affect or are affected by the economic crisis. We hope our readers would have a healthy discussion on the serious topics that we will post in the near future.

Economic Policies And Their Efficiencies




The economy of Pakistan is the 27th largest economy in the world in terms of purchasing power, and the 48th largest in absolute dollar terms. Pakistan's economy mainly eccompasses textiles, chemicals, food processing, agriculture and other industries. The economic system of production and management of material wealth. Basically, an economically stable country with good management will have a productive economy and vice versa. To understand the Economy, we need to first comprehend what exactly makes up the economy of a nation. Similarly, the productiveness and the management depends on various factors. These factors are the political stability, export trade, foreign relations, population, employment rate, literacy rate and profit and loss ratio.

Keeping all these factors in mind, Pakistan has certain policies to upkeep the economic status of the country. For instance the fiscal policy. A recent evaluation found that there was a growth rate of 7 percent per year for four successive years till 2007. Proper economic policies made economic development look impressive in spite of being a very poor country. It has been seen that economic growth rate of Pakistan was better than average growth rate of world as a result of a stable economic policy in Pakistan.

Manufacturing and financial services sectors have boomed because of latest economic policy of Pakistan. Stronger economic reforms were taken up as parts of economic policy at Pakistan. Foreign exchange position has been improved and there was a growth in currency reserves. GDP growth rates have been steady. However, in present situation, inflationary stress and a low saving rate have retarded growth a little bit.

Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani, Prime Minister of Pakistan states that economic indicators of nation are positive. However the inflation rate is not showing any positive signs to the common man even it is to the economy as a whole. Expenses have risen to a very high level in this modern day and time. Most of the population of Pakistan is below the poverty line, and cannot afford this inflation. Listning to politicians stating benefits for the economy of Pakistan will not help these poverty stricken people because all they see is the higher class getting benefits ouf of everything. However, as everything was getting better, the terrorist activities have put the foreing exchange and the stock market at stake. The common man always has to suffer the most. Financial status has been always a problem and is increasing day by day in Pakistan.

Dependance On Primary Sector



There are many factors that add up to an economic crisis. One of these factors is the dependence on the primary sector. Third world countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka are prime examples. Their economies are agricultural based. Even though it might be more feasible for them to continue to operate in this sector, it has many disadvantages which can lead to deterrence in economy’s welfare when facing a period of recession, further degrading the standard of life of the general public.

In current times, the world is under a severe period of recession and has been witness to a rising trend in inflation. In a country like Pakistan, everything is becoming more expensive as time progresses. In the primary sector, harvesting of crops and other raw materials have seen an increase in price. This includes fertilizers and seeds. As the cost of growing crops increases, the common farmer would, as a result, increase the price at which he sells these crops to wholesalers. This would explain why even basic necessities like food and clothing is getting more expensive. Due to the recession in the country, wages of people have not increased. People who do not make a steady income are faced with heavy borrowing in order to fulfill basic needs.

Shifting from the primary sector to the industrial sector requires a lot of progress and economic growth. Due to the recession and rising inflation, the government itself is under a lot of stress. Continued borrowing from developed countries in order to stabilize the economy only increases foreign debt. In order to increase revenue, the government increases taxes further worsening the position of the common man. People living in rural areas can not even afford to educate their children due to the high cost of living. The government lacking money cannot afford to build proper schools or hospitals, which as a result further degrades the living standards of people because of high illiteracy and death rates.

Dependence on the primary sector, in today’s world, does not satisfy the need of a country in terms of revenue and the welfare of the people living in it. Massive borrowing and constant inflation are only one of the few after effects of it.

Terrorism affecting the common man



A car loaded with explosives plunges itself into a donkey cart killing twenty, reports a local newspaper. This incident happened in Pakistan’s North West province known for its strong social ties to the once powerful Taliban across the border. It is the third suicide attack in as many days in this part of Pakistan. The death toll has climbed to an astonishing forty for just these suicide attacks. The forty excludes the countless injured and includes a mayor of a nearby town. It is not the first time N.W.F.P has played home to these bombings; it could be stated as the most heavily bombarded province since Pakistan’s war on terror. A close link to the notorious Taliban and strongholds of terrorism activists in its tribal areas are one of many reasons for the enormous death toll in this specific part of Pakistan.

Pakistan’s self inflicted war could be originated from Sep 2001 when after the fall of the twin towers led to Afghan invasion. Pakistan aiding with allies in the United States led a full front operation against the Taliban leading to a dispersion of Taliban groups throughout Afghanistan as well as on Pakistani soil. Pakistan’s strong links to the United States, the siege of the Lal masjid in 2007 and troubled judicial systems 2008-09 are constituted as the main elements behind Pakistan’s troubled decade.

As of 2 July 2009, Pakistan had suffered 36 suicide bombing incidents since January 2009, killing at least 465 and injuring more than 1120. 59 suicide attacks in 2008 as against 56 in year 2007. At least 852 persons, including 712 civilians and 140 Security Force (SF) personnel, were killed and over 1,867 persons injured by 65 suicide bombers involved in these attacks. 729 persons, including 552 civilians and 177 SF personnel, were killed and 1,677 persons injured by 58 suicide bombers, in 2007. Although, these attacks retaliate huge numbers NWFP had its highest share of casualties with 32 of the 59 suicide attacks in 2008 occurring in the NWFP and in 2007, 27 of the 56 suicide attacks occurred in the NWFP.

Through facts like these how can the common man feel safe? How can the common man feel the security needed for his

survival that is his god given right? If there is no sense of safety, how can the common man work and provide for himself and the so

many dependent in him?

Mismanagement in the Education Sector


“The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn.” These deep words were said by Alvin Toffler, who is an American writer and futurist, known for his works discussing the digital revolution, communication revolution, corporate revolution and technological singularity, so without doubt an intellectual man.

Education is the right of every child. To strip a child away from this right is not only wrong but even rather close to genocide to some. If the children of today are not given the proper education they deserve, then in the long run this will be a disadvantage for the country economically. The labor force will not be skilled and will only be able to achieve mediocre success. This will be devastating for the country. And unfortunately for us in Pakistan, this has been going on for many years.

But can this really be stopped? Can all this really change? In the recent few days, the bombing at the girls’ college in Islamabad caused many waves to pass across the nation. Schools, colleges, universities were shut down. Educational institutions look like a security war ground instead of an enlightening place for the students. Bomb threats and insecure environment are taking students attentions away from their studies. How can a student focus on his/her studies if not even certain if he or she is safe! Parents are uncertain whether their children will return or not and female students are terrorized by the thought of even attaining an education!
What is to become of common man in Pakistan? If things keep going like this the end is only inevitable!

Medical Reforms affecting the common man



To provide a state with proper health and medical reforms is one of the primary objectives of any government. But unfortunately when one looks at the conditions of the medical reforms that are available in Pakistan, one is completely shocked.

Our main agenda of bringing NWFP to limelight is that only one fully functional hospital, (Lady Reading) operates in NWFP which deals with all the casualties that originate from all the terrorist attacks. The medical supplies are limited where as the hospital located in the capital of NWFP Peshawar is a time consuming drive from the other affected parts of the province. The government camps and medical aid groups are short on aid for the affected while international aid workers are a local target for the terrorists. Suicide bombings at the UN offices and World aid groups have led them backing out in significant numbers in the deadly province of NWFP. The province faces huge death tolls due to lack of infrastructure and equipment within the hospital and the hospital being understaffed. The other question that remarks is that although the bombs direct affecter’s are large in number the people involved indirectly due to these threats are on a large scale as well. No proper disposal of debris from bombs and shattered debris from blown up buildings has added to the already unhygienic conditions of the country adding to a large scale spread out of diseases including influenza, diarrhea, typhoid and hepatitis B.

Consequently, due to all these reasons we wonder, how can the common man survive? Just consider that a family of six, with only one independent provider for the rest. If he is struck with a medical issue and faces the physiological and psychological effects of his disease and is unable to cope with the stresses of life and on top of all this faces the day by day worsening economic conditions of Pakistan. How will that family manage? Unfortunately for us all, these examples are very abundant in nature.